Fri, Jan 9, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Washington Capitals 5, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 36 | 110 | 18 | 524 |
| CHI | 010 | 16 | 08 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:03WSHAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 15:07WSHConnor McMichaelGWGAssists: Ryan Leonard · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 18:54WSHEthen FrankAssists: John Carlson, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 8:48CHIOliver MoorePPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Nick Lardis · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 12:38WSHJustin SourdifAssists: Connor McMichael, Ryan Leonard · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
- P3 13:33WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Martin Fehérváry · Snap, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:33WSHJustin Sourdif: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:18WSHMartin Fehérváry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:14CHIRyan Greene: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:51WSHBrandon Duhaime: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:54CHINick Lardis: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:20WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:35CHILandon Slaggert: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMcMichael – Sourdif – Leonard6:54
xG 0.51–0.18 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas7:00
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Frank9:01
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Duhaime – Leason – Lapierre7:26
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry9:13
xG 0.59–0.22 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 3–0
- Fehérváry – Chisholm2:08
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Roy – Chychrun13:35
xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Dickinson – Donato4:33
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach8:42
xG 0.24–0.18 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Greene3:32
xG 0.03–0.11 (24%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Bedard – Lardis – Moore3:12
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Vlasic15:44
xG 0.43–0.21 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Kaiser – Levshunov14:58
xG 0.39–0.45 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 0–2
- Grzelcyk – Korchinski12:17
xG 0.16–0.75 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).