Sat, Jan 10, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 4, San Jose Sharks 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 15 | 16 | 00 | 420 |
| SJS | 011 | 29 | 28 | 13 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:33DALJustin HryckowianUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 19:03DALJason RobertsonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 4:44SJSAlexander WennbergPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 14:49SJSJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Igor Chernyshov, Adam Gaudette · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 19:01DALKyle CapobiancoAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 7:53DALMikko RantanenAssists: Sam Steel, Nils Lundkvist · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 9:28SJSTyler ToffoliPPAssists: Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov · Backhand, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 15:01SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: Sam Dickinson, Collin Graf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–4
- OT 1:58SJSTyler ToffoliPPGWGAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Slap, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:22DALColin Blackwell: Interference2 min
- P2 1:41SJSDmitry Orlov: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:59DALEsa Lindell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54DALAdam Erne: Interference2 min
- P2 12:52DALColin Blackwell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:00SJSTimothy Liljegren: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:43DALIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:57DALMikko Rantanen: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHintz – Robertson – Bourque11:32
xG 0.81–0.21 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Steel – Johnston8:59
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Duchene – Rantanen – Johnston3:35
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Duchene – Blackwell – Hryckowian5:30
xG 0.22–0.47 (32%)attempts 3–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCapobianco – Lundkvist9:42
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Lundkvist – Harley4:14
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley12:09
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestEklund – Celebrini – Chernyshov15:37
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Skinner – Gaudette – Graf7:09
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Regenda11:54
xG 0.80–0.77 (51%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Eklund – Celebrini – Graf2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Liljegren15:18
xG 1.05–0.12 (90%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Leddy – Ferraro5:04
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Leddy – Dickinson10:24
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).