Sat, Jan 10, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 014 | 314 | 336 |
| BUF | 112 | 111 | 39 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03BUFJack QuinnAssists: Ryan McLeod, Zach Benson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:22BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Josh Doan · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 7:09BUFBowen ByramAssists: Tage Thompson, Peyton Krebs · Snap, 0.14 xG0–3
- P3 15:16ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 16:00BUFJack QuinnGWGAssists: Zach Benson, Owen Power · Snap, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 18:02ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Ian Moore · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
- P3 19:12ANAMason McTavishAssists: Leo Carlsson, Beckett Sennecke · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 19:49BUFJosh NorrisENAssists: Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.82 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:27ANARadko Gudas: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 1:07ANAIan Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:00ANAOlen Zellweger: Holding2 min
- P2 4:29BUFMattias Samuelsson: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:02BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:10BUFJosh Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 13:10ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:10BUFJosh Doan: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:10ANARyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:10BUFJosh Norris: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 13:10ANAMason McTavish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – McTavish – Gauthier10:12
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Kreider – Strome – Poehling9:40
xG 0.23–0.42 (36%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Johnston – Nesterenko – Washe8:05
xG 0.06–0.33 (16%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Killorn – Carlsson – Sennecke13:01
xG 0.70–0.98 (42%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Zellweger15:12
xG 1.13–0.50 (69%)attempts 29–12goals 0–1
- LaCombe – Moore13:30
xG 0.39–0.68 (36%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov15:02
xG 0.20–1.02 (16%)attempts 10–11goals 0–3
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Quinn – Benson9:35
xG 0.67–0.24 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Zucker – Tuch – Norris11:39
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Ostlund7:01
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Krebs – Doan11:50
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Metsa8:23
xG 0.50–0.16 (75%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Byram – Power17:03
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin18:31
xG 0.84–1.28 (39%)attempts 14–32goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).