Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Vancouver Canucks 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 015 | 08 | 06 | 029 |
| TOR | 36 | 112 | 16 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:03TORMatias MaccelliPPGWGAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 16:31TORMax DomiAssists: Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 19:40TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Steven Lorentz, Brandon Carlo · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 13:07TORJohn TavaresAssists: William Nylander · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 19:46TORNick RobertsonPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG0–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:38TORNick Robertson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:27VANAatu Räty: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:24TORAuston Matthews: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:01TOREaston Cowan: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:01TOREaston Cowan: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:01VANNils Hoglander: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:21TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:57VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:24TORMorgan Rielly: Interference2 min
- P2 14:00VANMarcus Pettersson: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:00TORMax Domi: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:30TORTroy Stecher: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:27VANElias Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P3 18:51VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Hoglander – Räty5:06
xG 0.68–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Kampf – Sherwood – O'Connor5:59
xG 0.38–0.03 (93%)attempts 14–1goals 0–0
- Boeser – Pettersson – Ohgren2:14
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Karlsson3:45
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson4:07
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Buium9:21
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Pettersson – Willander6:37
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli8:54
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Domi – Matthews – Knies7:22
xG 0.15–0.09 (64%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Laughton – Lorentz – McMann7:14
xG 0.12–0.30 (29%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Cowan7:36
xG 0.03–0.55 (6%)attempts 2–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carlo9:29
xG 0.39–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Stecher – Benoit13:27
xG 0.48–0.47 (50%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Rielly3:07
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).