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Ice Lab

Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Vancouver Canucks 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.

TOR winsVAN wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:26Shot by Buium, saved by Woll
  3. P1 1:38Robertson: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Matthews, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, Cowan · VAN Kane, Pettersson, Hronek, Pettersson, Hoglander

  4. P1 2:08Shot by Kane, saved by Woll4v5
  5. P1 3:47Shot by Hoglander, saved by Woll
  6. P1 3:48Shot by Hoglander, saved by Woll
  7. P1 6:36Shot by O'Connor, saved by Woll
  8. P1 7:09Shot by Matthews, saved by Demko
  9. P1 7:27Räty: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, Knies · VAN Kane, Pettersson, Hronek, Sherwood, Räty

  10. P1 8:03Goal by Maccelli (Nylander, Matthews)5v4+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Maccelli, Knies · VAN Myers, Pettersson, Boeser, Pettersson

  11. P1 9:19Shot by Kane, saved by Woll
  12. P1 10:24Matthews: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Knies · VAN Myers, Pettersson, DeBrusk, Pettersson, Karlsson

  13. P1 10:57Shot by Sherwood, saved by Woll4v5
  14. P1 11:02Shot by Pettersson, saved by Woll4v5
  15. P1 12:35Shot by Matthews, saved by Demko
  16. P1 13:01Cowan: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Nylander, Lorentz · VAN Myers, Pettersson, Hoglander, Räty, Ohgren

  17. P1 13:52Shot by DeBrusk, saved by Woll4v5
  18. P1 14:46Shot by Sasson, saved by Woll4v5
  19. P1 15:56Shot by Maccelli, saved by Demko
  20. P1 16:31Goal by Domi (Stecher)+13 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Domi, Matthews, Stecher, Benoit, Knies · VAN Boeser, Hronek, Ohgren, Pettersson, Sasson

  21. P1 16:56Shot by Pettersson, saved by Woll
  22. P1 16:58Shot by Räty, saved by Woll
  23. P1 17:01Cowan: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Roy, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, Cowan · VAN Myers, Kane, Pettersson, Hoglander, Räty

  24. P1 17:01Hoglander: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Roy, Stecher, Benoit, Robertson, Cowan · VAN Myers, Kane, Pettersson, Hoglander, Räty

  25. P1 17:21McCabe: High sticking (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Matthews, Knies · VAN Pettersson, DeBrusk, Hronek, Pettersson

  26. P1 18:41Shot by Boeser, saved by Woll3v4
  27. P1 19:15Shot by Pettersson, saved by Woll4v5
  28. P1 19:40Goal by Nylander (Lorentz, Carlo)+7 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Laughton, Nylander, Carlo, Lorentz · VAN Kane, Pettersson, Sherwood, Hoglander, Willander

  29. P1 19:55Shot by Myers, saved by Woll
  30. P1 19:57O'Connor: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Maccelli · VAN Myers, Kampf, O'Connor, Ohgren, Buium

  31. P1 0:00Period end5v4
  32. P2 0:00Period start
  33. P2 2:30Shot by Lorentz, saved by Lankinen
  34. P2 2:44Shot by Stecher, saved by Lankinen
  35. P2 2:50Shot by Robertson, saved by Lankinen
  36. P2 3:03Shot by Pettersson, saved by Woll
  37. P2 3:41Shot by Knies, saved by Lankinen
  38. P2 4:16Shot by McCabe, saved by Lankinen
  39. P2 6:07Shot by McMann, saved by Lankinen
  40. P2 7:20Shot by Pettersson, saved by Woll
  41. P2 7:24Rielly: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Carlo, Roy, Robertson, Cowan · VAN Pettersson, Boeser, Hronek, Ohgren, Sasson

  42. P2 7:50Shot by Boeser, saved by Woll4v5
  43. P2 7:57Shot by Laughton, saved by Lankinen4v5
  44. P2 8:32Shot by DeBrusk, saved by Woll4v5
  45. P2 8:43Shot by Matthews, saved by Lankinen4v5
  46. P2 8:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Lankinen4v5
  47. P2 9:45Shot by Hronek, saved by Woll
  48. P2 10:05Shot by Rielly, saved by Lankinen
  49. P2 11:07Shot by Sasson, saved by Woll
  50. P2 13:07Goal by Tavares (Nylander)+3 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Carlo, Maccelli · VAN Myers, Kane, Kampf, Sherwood, Buium

  51. P2 14:00Pettersson: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, Knies · VAN Pettersson, Boeser, Hronek, Ohgren, Sasson

  52. P2 14:00Domi: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, McCabe, Domi, Matthews, Knies · VAN Pettersson, Boeser, Hronek, Ohgren, Sasson

  53. P2 14:48Shot by Cowan, saved by Lankinen
  54. P2 15:17Shot by Hronek, saved by Woll
  55. P2 18:36Shot by Buium, saved by Woll
  56. P2 0:00Period end
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 1:59Shot by Myers, saved by Woll
  59. P3 3:31Shot by McMann, saved by Lankinen
  60. P3 4:07Shot by Kampf, saved by Woll
  61. P3 8:30Stecher: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Domi, Matthews, Stecher, Benoit, Maccelli · VAN Pettersson, Boeser, DeBrusk, Hronek, Pettersson

  62. P3 10:31Shot by Kane, saved by Woll
  63. P3 12:13Shot by Matthews, saved by Lankinen
  64. P3 12:27Pettersson: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Carlo, Matthews, Cowan · VAN DeBrusk, Pettersson, Karlsson, Willander, Buium

  65. P3 13:18Shot by Rielly, saved by Lankinen5v4
  66. P3 14:11Shot by Domi, saved by Lankinen5v4
  67. P3 16:17Shot by O'Connor, saved by Woll
  68. P3 16:25Shot by O'Connor, saved by Woll
  69. P3 18:49Shot by Sherwood, saved by Woll
  70. P3 18:51Sherwood: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Laughton, Carlo, Lorentz, McMann · VAN Pettersson, Kampf, Sherwood, O'Connor, Buium

  71. P3 19:12Shot by Roy, saved by Lankinen5v4
  72. P3 19:46Goal by Robertson, unassisted5v40 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Ekman-Larsson, Rielly, Roy, Robertson, Cowan · VAN Boeser, Pettersson, Sasson, Willander

  73. P3 0:00Period end
  74. P3 0:00Final