Sat, Jan 10, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 4, Montréal Canadiens 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 06 | 28 | 210 | 424 |
| MTL | 03 | 09 | 015 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:52DETLucas RaymondGWGAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Jacob Bernard-Docker · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 11:43DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider · Snap, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 0:34DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.16 xG3–0
- P3 18:53DETAndrew CoppENAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Dylan Larkin · Tip-in, 0.80 xG4–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:59MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 10:43MTLBrendan Gallagher: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:31MTLAlexandre Texier: Holding2 min
- P2 9:30DETEmmitt Finnie: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 11:37MTLOwen Beck: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 10:48MTLOliver Kapanen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Copp won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAppleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:24
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Raymond9:32
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Larkin – Kasper – Finnie7:58
xG 0.25–0.26 (50%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat9:57
xG 0.19–0.45 (29%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson8:09
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Seider – Edvinsson17:39
xG 0.71–0.64 (52%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker3:58
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Texier – Caufield10:32
xG 0.95–0.06 (94%)attempts 19–5goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:02
xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Blais – Veleno – Beck6:58
xG 0.24–0.48 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Bolduc6:33
xG 0.14–0.55 (21%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Dobson8:26
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Matheson – Guhle3:22
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson2:43
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).