Sun, Jan 11, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Washington Capitals 2, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 09 | 112 | 232 |
| NSH | 18 | 06 | 27 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:56WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Ryan Leonard · Slap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 13:15NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Roman Josi · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:12NSHCole SmithAssists: Roman Josi, Reid Schaefer · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 3:29NSHRoman JosiPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 9:03WSHEthen FrankPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:15NSHRoman Josi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 5:31NSHMichael McCarron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:03WSHBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 15:09NSHErik Haula: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:29WSHAnthony Beauvillier: Interference2 min
- P2 0:56NSHNick Perbix: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:51WSHAliaksei Protas: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:29WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
- P3 1:52WSHHendrix Lapierre: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:44WSHJohn Carlson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:18NSHAdam Wilsby: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Dowd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Beauvillier – Frank4:25
xG 0.33–0.11 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- McMichael – Protas – Leonard4:12
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Frank2:39
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas4:38
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRoy – Fehérváry13:12
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Roy – Sandin2:38
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry2:43
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJost – Svechkov – Wood5:38
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer8:42
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Bunting2:30
xG 0.07–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Haula – Forsberg5:35
xG 0.08–0.26 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Josi – Perbix11:10
xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Skjei – Wilsby13:39
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 7–17goals 0–0
- Hague – Blankenburg9:55
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).