Mon, Jan 12, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Detroit Red Wings 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 012 | 07 | 314 | 01 | 334 |
| DET | 18 | 25 | 04 | 11 | 418 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32DETJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Moritz Seider, Lucas Raymond · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 1:28DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Andrew Copp, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 4:54DETAlbert JohanssonAssists: Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.21 xG0–3
- P3 4:44CARJackson BlakePPAssists: Taylor Hall, Alexander Nikishin · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 7:56CARSeth JarvisSHAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 16:59CARShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Sebastian Aho · Slap, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 3:27DETAndrew CoppGWGAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.36 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:37CARJaccob Slavin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:49CARJackson Blake: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:48DETMoritz Seider: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:30DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:52DETAlbert Johansson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:47CARK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
- P3 15:18DETLucas Raymond: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:48DETBen Chiarot: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:30CARTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- OT 3:27CARSebastian Aho: Misconduct10 min
- OT 3:27CARShayne Gostisbehere: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Aho
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestEhlers – Aho – Svechnikov9:46
xG 0.74–0.29 (71%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis8:05
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Hall – Stankoven – Blake11:01
xG 0.62–0.64 (49%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Robinson – Kotkaniemi7:48
xG 0.42–0.47 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalker – Miller13:29
xG 0.55–0.18 (75%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- Slavin – Chatfield15:15
xG 0.77–0.42 (65%)attempts 22–6goals 0–2
- Gostisbehere – Nikishin10:12
xG 0.40–0.93 (30%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – Copp – DeBrincat8:59
xG 0.98–0.32 (75%)attempts 7–13goals 2–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:23
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Raymond10:48
xG 0.00–0.29 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Larkin – Kasper – Finnie8:29
xG 0.01–0.79 (1%)attempts 3–21goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Johansson6:39
xG 0.83–0.33 (71%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Bernard-Docker3:33
xG 0.07–0.04 (60%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Johansson5:11
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).