Tue, Jan 13, 2026·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
New York Islanders 4, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 38 | 112 | 427 |
| WPG | 19 | 411 | 02 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Alex Iafallo, Mark Scheifele · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 5:41WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Cole Perfetti, Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 6:23WPGJonathan ToewsPPAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.41 xG0–3
- P2 7:40NYIAnthony DuclairAssists: Anders Lee, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 8:58NYIEmil HeinemanUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P2 10:21NYIKyle MacLeanAssists: Casey Cizikas · Snap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P2 12:23WPGDylan DeMeloAssists: Mark Scheifele, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P2 19:40WPGAdam LowryGWGAssists: Neal Pionk, Dylan Samberg · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–5
- P3 19:14NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Mathew Barzal, Emil Heineman · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:31WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:48NYIScott Mayfield: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:58WPGLuke Schenn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 12:23NYIMarc Gatcomb: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 17:39NYIAdam Boqvist: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:42
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie7:34
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Drouin – Barzal – Heineman2:47
xG 0.09–0.07 (55%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Pageau – Holmstrom – Shabanov11:37
xG 0.20–0.22 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer2:50
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock3:57
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo9:47
xG 0.26–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestToews – Vilardi – Perfetti11:14
xG 1.09–0.30 (79%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Namestnikov10:29
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 6–6goals 1–2
- Pearson – Koepke – Zhilkin5:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (2%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Iafallo14:15
xG 0.35–0.97 (26%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:57
xG 0.97–0.35 (74%)attempts 13–7goals 2–0
- Schenn – Stanley10:03
xG 0.22–0.37 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Samberg – Pionk13:45
xG 0.21–0.82 (20%)attempts 7–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).