Thu, Jan 15, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 117 | 29 | 334 |
| PIT | 213 | 213 | 24 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16PITJustin BrazeauPPAssists: Ben Kindel, Anthony Mantha · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 12:25PITBryan RustPPAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:16PITEgor ChinakhovAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P2 2:17PHIRodrigo AbolsAssists: Cam York, Carl Grundstrom · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–3
- P2 18:29PITBlake LizotteGWGAssists: Noel Acciari · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–4
- P3 3:10PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 4:27PITConnor DewarAssists: Tommy Novak · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 10:54PHINick SeelerAssists: Denver Barkey, Noah Juulsen · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–6
- P3 17:25PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Denver Barkey, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:23PHICam York: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:53PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:43PITBlake Lizotte: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:11PHIGarnet Hathaway: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34PITJack St. Ivany: Interference2 min
- P3 1:32PHIMatvei Michkov: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:32PHIMatvei Michkov: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:32PITBlake Lizotte: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:40PITKris Letang: Boarding2 min
- P3 14:00PITTommy Novak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Barkey – Michkov9:46
xG 1.35–0.06 (96%)attempts 17–5goals 2–0
- Tippett – Cates – Zegras8:56
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Abols – Grundstrom8:51
xG 0.17–0.65 (21%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Dvorak – Konecny – Grebenkin8:43
xG 0.23–1.32 (15%)attempts 6–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae4:02
xG 1.01–0.62 (62%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
- Sanheim – York14:42
xG 0.79–0.58 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Seeler – Drysdale8:04
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:54
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte7:05
xG 0.52–0.12 (81%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell11:32
xG 0.71–0.64 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Malkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:11
xG 0.47–1.35 (26%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea11:56
xG 1.16–0.24 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 1–2
- Wotherspoon – St. Ivany12:41
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Letang – Kulak16:33
xG 0.64–1.55 (29%)attempts 12–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).