Fri, Jan 16, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Nashville Predators 7, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 211 | 38 | 730 |
| COL | 217 | 016 | 110 | 343 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 1:24COLBrock NelsonAssists: Brent Burns, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 7:32NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 11:16COLBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Manson, Sam Malinski · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 13:01NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Luke Evangelista, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 18:04NSHMichael BuntingGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 1:09COLMartin NecasAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Artturi Lehkonen · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 15:13NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 17:04NSHSteven StamkosENAssists: Michael Bunting, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.40 xG6–3
- P3 17:41NSHMichael McCarronENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.81 xG7–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 13:22NSHErik Haula: Interference2 min
- P3 13:55COLZakhar Bardakov: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:31NSHCole Smith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista13:30
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 18–16goals 3–0
- Jost – Svechkov – Wood8:53
xG 0.32–0.54 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Schaefer8:32
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–2
- Stamkos – Haula – Bunting11:48
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei19:45
xG 1.04–0.65 (61%)attempts 26–20goals 3–1
- Barron – Blankenburg11:02
xG 0.17–0.52 (24%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- Hague – Perbix16:43
xG 0.34–0.87 (28%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Nichushkin – Colton11:04
xG 0.76–0.19 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Kelly – Drury8:33
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas13:42
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 17–14goals 1–1
- Bardakov – Ivan – Brindley7:11
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski5:29
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Burns – Manson10:18
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Makar4:08
xG 0.15–0.08 (67%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).