Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
New York Rangers 6, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 36 | 313 | 09 | 628 |
| PHI | 18 | 17 | 113 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Trevor Zegras, Travis Sanheim · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 7:05NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P1 7:26NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: J.T. Miller, Braden Schneider · Snap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P1 8:25NYRBrennan OthmannAssists: Will Cuylle · Snap, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 5:38NYRMika ZibanejadPPGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck · Snap, 0.09 xG4–1
- P2 8:25NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: J.T. Miller, Scott Morrow · Snap, 0.19 xG5–1
- P2 14:31NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.07 xG6–1
- P2 16:48PHITravis SanheimSHAssists: Travis Konecny · Snap, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 8:01PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Denver Barkey, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:02NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:44PHIMatvei Michkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:44PHISamuel Ersson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:12PHIEmil Andrae: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:12NYRBrennan Othmann: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:22PHINikita Grebenkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault9:19
xG 0.56–0.33 (63%)attempts 11–12goals 2–1
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Raddysh5:26
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:19
xG 0.69–0.80 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Cuylle – Othmann – Laba10:19
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Schneider14:52
xG 1.08–0.61 (64%)attempts 20–21goals 3–1
- Robertson – Schneider2:55
xG 0.21–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson13:33
xG 0.45–0.61 (43%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Zegras – Barkey3:25
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Konecny – Cates – Michkov3:35
xG 0.15–0.10 (61%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Grundstrom2:19
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cates – Barkey – Michkov4:14
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJuulsen – Andrae13:28
xG 0.73–0.27 (73%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Seeler – Sanheim11:07
xG 0.66–0.28 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Seeler – Drysdale4:36
xG 0.03–0.10 (26%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).