Sat, Jan 17, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
New York Islanders 2, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 19 | 111 | 230 |
| CGY | 14 | 37 | 08 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51CGYYegor SharangovichAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Kevin Bahl · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 3:04CGYAdam KlapkaAssists: Kevin Bahl, Morgan Frost · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 9:50CGYJustin KirklandGWGAssists: Ryan Lomberg, Adam Klapka · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 11:49CGYYan KuznetsovAssists: Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 12:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Matthew Schaefer, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 17:04NYIAnders LeeAssists: Calum Ritchie, Matthew Schaefer · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:00NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:31NYIKyle MacLean: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 16:59CGYKevin Bahl: Holding2 min
- P3 9:14NYIAdam Pelech: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:11CGYJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPageau – Drouin – Holmstrom9:36
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:42
xG 0.42–0.10 (81%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Duclair – Barzal8:23
xG 0.92–0.62 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
- Duclair – Barzal – Heineman4:10
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer12:14
xG 0.90–0.41 (69%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
- Mayfield – Boqvist6:58
xG 0.74–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Pelech – DeAngelo14:47
xG 0.47–0.13 (79%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Huberdeau – Frost – Farabee8:35
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Kirkland – Lomberg – Klapka8:42
xG 0.16–0.41 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Kadri – Zary – Gridin9:15
xG 0.24–0.58 (29%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:54
xG 0.39–0.83 (32%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Andersson – Bahl15:21
xG 0.63–0.92 (41%)attempts 17–22goals 2–0
- Hanley – Brzustewicz12:20
xG 0.11–0.45 (19%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov13:24
xG 0.14–1.01 (12%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).