Sat, Jan 17, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 14 | 213 | 07 | 02 | 2 | 426 |
| PIT | 210 | 08 | 19 | 06 | 1 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42CBJZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Zach Werenski, Brendan Gaunce · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:59PITConnor CliftonAssists: Tommy Novak · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 17:52PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 7:32CBJKirill MarchenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 17:38CBJDanton HeinenAssists: Erik Gudbranson, Egor Zamula · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 18:59PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CBJ Kent Johnson scored
- 2. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 3. CBJ Adam Fantilli stopped
- 4. PIT Egor Chinakhov scored
- 5. CBJ Kirill Marchenko stopped
- 6. PIT Bryan Rust stopped
- 7. CBJ Charlie Coyle scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:14CBJZachary Aston-Reese: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:03CBJIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P2 8:43CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:43PITParker Wotherspoon: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:15PITBlake Lizotte: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:21PITBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:11CBJAdam Fantilli: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Heinen – Olivier3:03
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Heinen – Aston-Reese4:24
xG 0.24–0.11 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Coyle – Olivier – Voronkov5:55
xG 0.18–0.17 (52%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Marchenko – Sillinger – Fantilli9:36
xG 0.33–0.85 (28%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski5:10
xG 0.40–0.05 (89%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Severson – Provorov12:46
xG 0.54–0.30 (64%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
- Severson – Zamula2:27
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov10:53
xG 0.87–0.15 (85%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:05
xG 0.16–0.08 (67%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:46
xG 0.76–0.69 (53%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte7:06
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Shea13:44
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1
- Wotherspoon – St. Ivany13:51
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Letang – Kulak15:12
xG 0.84–0.96 (47%)attempts 19–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).