Mon, Jan 19, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, Seattle Kraken 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 115 | 310 | 632 |
| SEA | 16 | 18 | 19 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44PITParker WotherspoonAssists: Blake Lizotte, Anthony Mantha · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 7:50PITConnor DewarSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 16:12SEABen MeyersAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Ryan Winterton · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 13:55SEARyan LindgrenAssists: Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers · Snap, 0.24 xG2–2
- P2 14:45PITBrett KulakAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 2:21PITJustin BrazeauGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha, Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 7:47SEAEeli TolvanenPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Shane Wright · Slap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 16:48PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 19:30PITConnor DewarENAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.36 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:29SEARyan Lindgren: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:20PITBrett Kulak: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:57PITBlake Lizotte: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02SEARyan Lindgren: Interference2 min
- P3 6:24PITBrett Kulak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:21SEABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Stephenson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov11:29
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte7:26
xG 0.24–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – Brazeau – Kindel8:24
xG 0.66–0.88 (43%)attempts 12–7goals 1–2
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:42
xG 0.19–0.56 (25%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestClifton – Graves11:13
xG 0.72–0.34 (68%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Kulak15:55
xG 0.66–0.55 (55%)attempts 17–13goals 3–1
- Wotherspoon – Shea16:13
xG 0.62–0.94 (40%)attempts 16–10goals 1–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Winterton – Meyers5:58
xG 0.72–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Kakko – Wright – Catton2:17
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers5:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers2:38
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Lindgren13:08
xG 0.64–0.77 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:12
xG 0.29–0.45 (39%)attempts 6–17goals 0–1
- Oleksiak – Evans8:27
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).