Mon, Jan 19, 2026·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Minnesota Wild 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 29 | 320 | 110 | 639 |
| TOR | 18 | 08 | 214 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:45MINVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Ryan Hartman, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 10:29MINRyan HartmanAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 18:24TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 6:53MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Brock Faber, Quinn Hughes · Tip-in, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 8:24MINVladimir TarasenkoGWGAssists: Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 19:14MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Brock Faber, Danila Yurov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 6:27TORNick RobertsonAssists: Nicolas Roy, Easton Cowan · Deflected, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 15:02TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Max Domi · Backhand, 0.15 xG5–3
- P3 17:22MINMarcus FolignoENAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Nico Sturm · Backhand, 0.79 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:58TORSimon Benoit: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:06MINJared Spurgeon: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:36TORBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P2 10:18MINQuinn Hughes: Interference2 min
- P2 17:23TOREaston Cowan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:37MINVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov15:19
xG 0.87–0.30 (74%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- Pitlick – Jones – Sturm5:11
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Foligno – Hinostroza – Haight6:22
xG 0.54–0.59 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Trenin – Yurov9:08
xG 0.27–0.47 (36%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:55
xG 1.34–0.25 (84%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Hughes – Faber16:28
xG 0.94–0.94 (50%)attempts 20–19goals 3–0
- Spurgeon – Hughes3:40
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Robertson – Cowan9:48
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Tavares – Maccelli – Knies11:28
xG 0.52–0.35 (59%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz9:41
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Domi – Matthews – McMann10:38
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Rielly10:00
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 12–11goals 2–0
- Stecher – Benoit9:49
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Rielly – Carlo3:11
xG 0.21–0.32 (39%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).