Mon, Jan 19, 2026·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Vegas Golden Knights 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 14 | 06 | 17 | 217 |
| VGK | 011 | 17 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:46PHITravis KonecnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:28VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Mark Stone · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 7:22PHITravis KonecnySHGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:28PHIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P1 12:19VGKAdin Hill: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:50PHIDenver Barkey: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:41PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:03PHINoah Cates: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:09PHITravis Sanheim: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:13VGKTanner Laczynski: Holding2 min
- P3 13:29PHIJamie Drysdale: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:27PHIOwen Tippett: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Barkey8:34
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras7:53
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Pederson – Grundstrom6:09
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Michkov7:00
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanheim – York11:27
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Seeler – Juulsen10:46
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Andrae – Drysdale12:19
xG 0.19–0.84 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLaczynski – Reinhardt – Holtz6:40
xG 0.57–0.07 (89%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev5:50
xG 0.61–0.25 (71%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Laczynski – Bowman2:05
xG 0.15–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Kolesar – Bowman4:55
xG 0.00–0.14 (3%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTheodore – Lauzon12:59
xG 0.65–0.50 (57%)attempts 16–17goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Korczak13:07
xG 0.27–0.42 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Hutton – Megna8:47
xG 0.26–0.45 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).