Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Buffalo Sabres 5, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 314 | 111 | 18 | 533 |
| NSH | 08 | 212 | 114 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Konsta Helenius, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 11:45BUFNoah OstlundAssists: Konsta Helenius, Owen Power · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–0
- P1 17:24BUFKonsta HeleniusAssists: Peyton Krebs · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P2 4:20BUFTage ThompsonGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Josh Doan · Snap, 0.09 xG4–0
- P2 10:09NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Filip Forsberg, Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–1
- P2 11:54NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 9:30NSHRyan O'ReillyAssists: Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:14BUFPeyton KrebsENAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:24BUFJason Zucker: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:20NSHLuke Evangelista: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:43BUFJordan Greenway: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00BUFMattias Samuelsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NSHRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOstlund – Benson – Helenius11:27
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Greenway – Malenstyn – Krebs8:27
xG 0.31–0.27 (54%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn12:10
xG 0.52–0.73 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Doan8:49
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin8:48
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Byram8:19
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Byram – Power5:49
xG 0.20–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista10:57
xG 0.97–0.46 (68%)attempts 25–8goals 2–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista2:26
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt9:22
xG 0.38–0.27 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Wood2:24
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei17:23
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Hague – Blankenburg8:54
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Josi – Hague2:00
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).