Tue, Jan 20, 2026·Rogers Place, Edmonton
New Jersey Devils 2, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 04 | 210 | 03 | 217 |
| EDM | 04 | 16 | 013 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:23NJDArseny GritsyukAssists: Cody Glass, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 7:02EDMMatt SavoieAssists: Jake Walman, Isaac Howard · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 8:32NJDCody GlassGWGAssists: Arseny Gritsyuk, Connor Brown · Snap, 0.15 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:11EDMVasily Podkolzin: Instigator2 min
- P1 17:11EDMVasily Podkolzin: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:11NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:11EDMVasily Podkolzin: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 9:52NJDBrenden Dillon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 14:10NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:00NJDConnor Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 15:00EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Glass – Gritsyuk2:56
xG 0.64–0.09 (87%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Glass – Gritsyuk – Hameenaho5:08
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Dadonov – Brown – Cotter5:04
xG 0.08–0.12 (41%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hughes12:36
xG 0.72–0.84 (46%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Siegenthaler16:52
xG 0.71–0.42 (63%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Nemec9:15
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Dillon – Hamilton12:50
xG 0.54–0.65 (45%)attempts 13–14goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid8:44
xG 0.69–0.15 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – McDavid – Podkolzin5:19
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – McDavid – Savoie2:36
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Janmark – Frederic – Podkolzin2:20
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard18:15
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–1
- Nurse – Walman5:54
xG 0.43–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Emberson – Stastney4:07
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).