Wed, Jan 21, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
New York Islanders 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 011 | 05 | 125 |
| SEA | 110 | 212 | 13 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:38NYIAnthony DuclairPPAssists: Calum Ritchie, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:40SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jared McCann · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 13:37SEAVince DunnGWGAssists: Ryan Winterton, Ben Meyers · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:28SEAKaapo KakkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–3
- P3 16:32SEAJared McCannENAssists: Brandon Montour, Philipp Grubauer · Wrist, 0.80 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:19SEAFrederick Gaudreau: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:12SEARyan Lindgren: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:07SEABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:48NYIMaxim Tsyplakov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 9:36NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:31SEABerkly Catton: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:18SEAJamie Oleksiak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:26NYIAnthony Duclair: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:09SEARyan Winterton: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:35NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:02SEAChandler Stephenson: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barzal won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- MacLean – Heineman – Ritchie6:54
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Tsyplakov – Shabanov5:49
xG 0.10–0.20 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Duclair – Barzal6:22
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Pageau – Drouin – Holmstrom9:51
xG 0.18–0.44 (30%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Schaefer3:01
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – DeAngelo10:32
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Pelech2:10
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers11:36
xG 0.64–0.34 (66%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton6:14
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Wright8:40
xG 0.21–0.46 (31%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Meyers7:15
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn12:56
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour12:56
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Evans7:58
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).