Thu, Jan 22, 2026·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 14 | 18 | 18 | 02 | 2 | 422 |
| CAR | 113 | 112 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:12CHIIlya MikheyevSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 12:50CARJoel NystromAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 4:35CHINick LardisAssists: Ryan Donato, Oliver Moore · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 9:16CARJordan StaalAssists: Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 13:38CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 14:20CARJackson BlakeAssists: Logan Stankoven, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.28 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CAR Jackson Blake stopped
- 2. CHI Nick Lardis stopped
- 3. CAR Andrei Svechnikov scored
- 4. CHI Connor Bedard scored
- 5. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
- 6. CHI Frank Nazar stopped
- 7. CAR K'Andre Miller stopped
- 8. CHI Andre Burakovsky stopped
- 9. CAR Logan Stankoven stopped
- 10. CHI Ryan Donato stopped
- 11. CAR Mark Jankowski stopped
- 12. CHI Oliver Moore scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:19CHIArtyom Levshunov: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:44CHITyler Bertuzzi: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:15CHIMatt Grzelcyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:55CHIOliver Moore: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:55CHIOliver Moore: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:55CARAlexander Nikishin: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:43CARJoel Nystrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:32CHIAlex Vlasic: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nazar won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Bertuzzi – Mikheyev – Nazar7:43
xG 0.42–0.38 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Burakovsky – Bertuzzi – Bedard2:26
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Slaggert – Dach6:51
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Bedard8:33
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – Levshunov4:47
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Murphy – Kaiser8:19
xG 0.58–0.57 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Crevier15:36
xG 0.34–0.61 (35%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Stankoven – Blake9:27
xG 1.15–0.54 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Jankowski – Carrier – Kotkaniemi7:08
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Staal – Martinook – Carrier2:32
xG 0.09–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Aho – Svechnikov – Jarvis11:43
xG 0.49–0.48 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Chatfield16:49
xG 0.72–0.22 (76%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Nikishin – Nystrom8:40
xG 0.93–0.60 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Walker – Miller15:54
xG 0.80–0.64 (55%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).