Thu, Jan 22, 2026·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Ottawa Senators 3, Nashville Predators 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 211 | 110 | 05 | 326 |
| NSH | 08 | 110 | 49 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:03OTTStephen HallidayAssists: Lars Eller, Nick Cousins · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 14:19OTTRidly GreigAssists: Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 10:46OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Dylan Cozens, Artem Zub · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 18:34NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Luke Evangelista, Filip Forsberg · Slap, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 8:19NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Michael Bunting, Luke Evangelista · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 10:07NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Roman Josi · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 18:47NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Nick Blankenburg · Bat, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 19:33NSHCole SmithENAssists: Erik Haula, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 19:57OTTShane Pinto: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:57NSHSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:33OTTArtem Zub: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:05NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Boarding2 min
- P2 18:04OTTJordan Spence: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:54NSHSteven Stamkos: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:14OTTFabian Zetterlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 9:39OTTTim Stützle: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:32NSHMichael McCarron: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestEller – Cousins – Halliday4:53
xG 0.40–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig8:46
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Zetterlund – Batherson – Stützle7:00
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle2:00
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven11:04
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub12:23
xG 0.39–0.10 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Jensen – Chabot14:38
xG 0.78–1.01 (44%)attempts 9–21goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – McCarron – Smith5:11
xG 0.66–0.02 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Forsberg2:34
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Forsberg – Svechkov – Wood2:09
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt5:24
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei10:41
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Barron3:49
xG 0.47–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Perbix – Blankenburg3:17
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).