Fri, Jan 23, 2026·United Center, Chicago
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 113 | 09 | 01 | 3 | 231 |
| CHI | 14 | 02 | 08 | 05 | 2 | 119 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:42CHIRyan GreeneAssists: Nick Lardis, Oliver Moore · Wrist, 0.86 xG0–1
- P2 18:42TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CHI Nick Lardis stopped
- 2. TBL Charle-Edouard D'Astous stopped
- 3. CHI Connor Bedard stopped
- 4. TBL Nikita Kucherov scored
- 5. CHI Frank Nazar scored
- 6. TBL Jake Guentzel stopped
- 7. CHI Louis Crevier scored
- 8. TBL Gage Goncalves scored
- 9. CHI Oliver Moore stopped
- 10. TBL Dominic James scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:23TBLJack Finley: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 3:23TBLJack Finley: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:23CHINick Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:25CHIArvid Soderblom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:36TBLDarren Raddysh: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:42TBLGage Goncalves: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 6:11CHIArtyom Levshunov: Holding2 min
- P3 4:56CHIJason Dickinson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nazar won the faceoff against James
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Cirelli – Hagel11:05
xG 0.93–0.18 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Gourde – Girgensons – Holmberg9:20
xG 0.61–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Goncalves – James9:03
xG 0.31–0.23 (57%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRaddysh – Moser16:14
xG 1.39–0.29 (83%)attempts 23–9goals 0–0
- D'Astous – Crozier2:14
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cernak – D'Astous14:08
xG 0.62–0.48 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Donato – Nazar2:07
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – Greene – Nazar5:34
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Nazar – Lardis – Moore2:11
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Mikheyev – Slaggert3:18
xG 0.03–0.13 (19%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Kaiser3:05
xG 0.06–0.07 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Levshunov3:23
xG 0.02–0.15 (14%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Crevier – Kaiser3:08
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).