Fri, Jan 23, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 26 | 16 | 48 | 720 |
| COL | 017 | 37 | 011 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02PHIOwen TippettAssists: Denver Barkey, Cam York · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:57PHIDenver BarkeyPPAssists: Matvei Michkov, Owen Tippett · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 7:17COLParker KellyAssists: Zakhar Bardakov, Jack Ahcan · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 10:29COLVictor OlofssonAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 11:01PHIBobby BrinkAssists: Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P2 12:12COLCale MakarAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 0:56PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 2:00PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Emil Andrae, Garnet Hathaway · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 10:24PHIOwen TippettSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG6–3
- P3 16:53PHIMatvei MichkovENAssists: Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.68 xG7–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:45PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:59PHINoah Cates: Interference2 min
- P1 17:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 2:02COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:17PHIEmil Andrae: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:37PHIDenver Barkey: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Dvorak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Konecny – Zegras10:01
xG 1.07–0.57 (65%)attempts 8–20goals 0–1
- Cates – Brink – Michkov6:53
xG 0.45–0.06 (89%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Grundstrom2:00
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Pederson – Grundstrom4:52
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Drysdale15:13
xG 1.56–0.98 (61%)attempts 14–23goals 1–0
- Juulsen – Andrae9:41
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- Andrae – Drysdale2:22
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Kiviranta – Brindley2:09
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Nelson – MacKinnon – Necas2:43
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – Nichushkin – Drury2:27
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Kiviranta – Bardakov2:58
xG 0.40–0.42 (49%)attempts 4–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Girard3:57
xG 0.58–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Burns – Makar3:16
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Manson – Malinski2:24
xG 0.01–0.01 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).