Sat, Jan 24, 2026·TD Garden, Boston
Montréal Canadiens 3, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 17 | 29 | 09 | 325 |
| BOS | 02 | 211 | 27 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:36MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans · Snap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 1:45BOSViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Fraser Minten, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P2 7:37MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Juraj Slafkovský · Slap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:46BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 13:29MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 13:55BOSFraser MintenAssists: Hampus Lindholm, Charlie McAvoy · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 14:07BOSMorgan GeekiePPGWGAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:28MTLZachary Bolduc: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:33MTLKirby Dach: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:33BOSJonathan Aspirot: Fighting5 min
- P2 0:25MTLNoah Dobson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:30BOSPavel Zacha: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:02MTLKaiden Guhle: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:09BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:14BOSAndrew Peeke: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:03MTLAlexandre Carrier: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Minten
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Danault – Anderson8:00
xG 0.31–0.11 (75%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Evans – Dach – Bolduc5:52
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:44
xG 0.23–0.26 (47%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Texier – Caufield12:57
xG 0.52–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuhle – Hutson9:39
xG 0.78–0.18 (81%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Matheson – Dobson15:11
xG 0.68–0.27 (72%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:05
xG 0.09–0.00 (97%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestLindholm – Pastrnak – Geekie7:48
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Khusnutdinov – Steeves – Minten3:22
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Arvidsson – Zacha – Mittelstadt12:09
xG 0.77–0.79 (49%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Geekie – Steeves – Minten4:06
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – McAvoy6:35
xG 0.51–0.13 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Aspirot10:30
xG 0.49–0.49 (50%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Lindholm – Lohrei9:46
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).