Sun, Jan 25, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Ottawa Senators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 08 | 17 | 120 |
| OTT | 16 | 312 | 314 | 732 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25OTTFabian ZetterlundAssists: Stephen Halliday · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 5:51OTTDylan CozensGWGAssists: Ridly Greig, Brady Tkachuk · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 6:07OTTJordan SpenceAssists: Tyler Kleven, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–3
- P2 17:50OTTStephen HallidayAssists: Thomas Chabot, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–4
- P3 1:22OTTDylan CozensAssists: Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 2:05OTTStephen HallidayAssists: Tyler Kleven · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–6
- P3 3:56OTTNick JensenAssists: Thomas Chabot, Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–7
- P3 15:05VGKRasmus AnderssonAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–7
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:36OTTTyler Kleven: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 18:23OTTRidly Greig: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 19:46OTTFabian Zetterlund: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:19VGKPavel Dorofeyev: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Pinto
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestLaczynski – Reinhardt – Bowman9:28
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Hertl – Kolesar – Rondbjerg2:17
xG 0.16–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–1goals 1–1
- Smith – Marner – Dorofeyev2:47
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hertl – Marner – Dorofeyev5:40
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hutton – Korczak11:13
xG 0.55–0.65 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 0–3
- Hanifin – Andersson16:42
xG 0.41–0.76 (35%)attempts 13–22goals 1–2
- Theodore – Lauzon17:31
xG 0.25–0.85 (22%)attempts 11–19goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTkachuk – Cozens – Greig9:47
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 3–1
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle12:33
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Amadio – Pinto10:50
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday5:11
xG 0.30–0.55 (36%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub15:06
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Spence – Kleven15:10
xG 0.52–0.23 (69%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Jensen – Chabot16:58
xG 1.01–0.79 (56%)attempts 15–16goals 4–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).