Sun, Jan 25, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 03 | 28 | 16 | 14 | 421 |
| CGY | 217 | 010 | 17 | 01 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17CGYJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Mikael Backlund, Matt Coronato · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:56CGYHunter BrzustewiczAssists: Adam Klapka, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 3:22ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 12:41ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Mikael Granlund, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 4:50CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Matvei Gridin, Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 13:08ANAChris KreiderAssists: Ryan Poehling, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 2:54ANABeckett SenneckeGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 17:39CGYYan Kuznetsov: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:45CGYJustin Kirkland: Holding2 min
- P3 3:37ANADrew Helleson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Viel – Poehling – Gauthier12:39
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Kreider – Strome – Harkins10:47
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke12:48
xG 0.52–0.85 (38%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger2:05
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gudas – Mintyukov4:47
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov7:36
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Pospisil – Zary10:59
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato11:01
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Gridin7:59
xG 0.39–0.32 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Kirkland – Farabee – Klapka8:57
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Brzustewicz12:12
xG 0.94–0.68 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–2
- Weegar – Kuznetsov16:53
xG 0.62–0.54 (54%)attempts 22–22goals 0–1
- Whitecloud – Bahl19:43
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).