Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Los Angeles Kings 3, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 18 | 25 | 322 |
| DET | 05 | 05 | 118 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:00LAKSamuel HeleniusAssists: Jeff Malott · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P3 6:46LAKAndrei KuzmenkoPPGWGAssists: Adrian Kempe, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 17:45DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Moritz Seider, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 18:47LAKCorey PerryENAssists: Alex Laferriere · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:08DETAlbert Johansson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:09DETDylan Larkin: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:04LAKQuinton Byfield: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:21LAKAndrei Kuzmenko: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:53DETJacob Bernard-Docker: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P3 19:53LAKAdrian Kempe: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kasper won the faceoff against Kempe
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMalott – Helenius – Ward6:52
xG 0.52–0.11 (83%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Foegele – Moore – Byfield9:13
xG 0.41–0.17 (71%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Armia – Fiala – Kuzmenko6:36
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Perry – Kempe – Laferriere11:11
xG 0.17–0.88 (16%)attempts 5–19goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci12:16
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:49
xG 0.92–0.89 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 1–0
- Edmundson – Clarke12:07
xG 0.44–0.71 (38%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Raymond – Kasper11:28
xG 0.92–0.49 (65%)attempts 19–8goals 0–1
- Kane – Copp – DeBrincat11:19
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Appleton – Rasmussen – Soderblom9:28
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Compher – Finnie7:31
xG 0.26–0.47 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Seider15:43
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Sandin-Pellikka10:21
xG 0.79–0.62 (56%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Sandin-Pellikka2:04
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).