Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
San Jose Sharks 5, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 315 | 112 | 16 | 533 |
| VAN | 18 | 011 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:15VANTom WillanderAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 1:51SJSMacklin CelebriniAssists: Will Smith, Sam Dickinson · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 4:43SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 5:55SJSTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Sam Dickinson · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P2 9:07SJSWill SmithPPAssists: John Klingberg, Macklin Celebrini · Snap, 0.11 xG4–1
- P3 0:28SJSJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Will Smith, Macklin Celebrini · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–1
- P3 9:15VANFilip HronekPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, Jake DeBrusk · Slap, 0.10 xG5–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:44VANConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:44SJSDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:20VANJake DeBrusk: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:44SJSMacklin Celebrini: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:01VANTeddy Blueger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:21SJSTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:25SJSBarclay Goodrow: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:42VANEvander Kane: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:42SJSTimothy Liljegren: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:42VANEvander Kane: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:49VANMarcus Pettersson: High sticking2 min
- P3 7:42SJSWill Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Regenda9:48
xG 0.70–0.02 (97%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf10:52
xG 0.48–0.18 (72%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk8:48
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Eklund – Misa9:31
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Liljegren12:54
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Dickinson13:41
xG 0.70–0.28 (71%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Orlov – Klingberg13:20
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Kane – O'Connor – Räty4:13
xG 0.13–0.10 (55%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Hoglander – Räty3:00
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Chytil – Hoglander – Lekkerimäki5:05
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Blueger – Garland – Ohgren7:20
xG 0.11–0.27 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Willander4:36
xG 0.37–0.09 (80%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson3:46
xG 0.08–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Mancini – Willander2:30
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).