Tue, Jan 27, 2026·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Washington Capitals 1, Seattle Kraken 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 04 | 07 | 19 | 120 |
| SEA | 013 | 38 | 211 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:15SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 10:09SEAJared McCannGWGAssists: Matty Beniers, Ryan Lindgren · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 17:54SEAJordan EberleAssists: Jared McCann, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 2:30WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Ryan Leonard, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 13:12SEARyker EvansAssists: Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 16:27SEAMatty BeniersAssists: Jared McCann, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:30WSHEthen Frank: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:33WSHDeclan Chisholm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 7:27SEAChandler Stephenson: Interference2 min
- P3 1:27SEAMatty Beniers: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 7:32SEABerkly Catton: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:21WSHJustin Sourdif: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:21SEAEeli Tolvanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:43WSHBrandon Duhaime: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:43SEAJacob Melanson: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:43WSHBrandon Duhaime: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaudreau won the faceoff against Sourdif
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Duhaime – Lapierre – Frank2:42
xG 0.01–0.01 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Leonard2:08
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Strome – McMichael – Leonard4:49
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Dowd – Frank2:48
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry2:49
xG 0.29–0.05 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry11:30
xG 0.55–0.84 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- McIlrath – Chisholm10:33
xG 0.23–0.55 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers7:33
xG 1.30–0.43 (75%)attempts 16–8goals 3–0
- Stephenson – Tolvanen – Catton7:58
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Wright9:20
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Winterton – Melanson9:31
xG 0.22–0.43 (34%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindgren – Evans11:24
xG 0.83–0.19 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Larsson – Dunn10:42
xG 1.14–0.72 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Montour14:59
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).