Thu, Jan 29, 2026·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Los Angeles Kings 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 012 | 119 | 07 | 138 |
| BUF | 28 | 114 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:14BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Ryan McLeod, Jack Quinn · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:17BUFMattias SamuelssonGWGAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Jack Quinn · Slap, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 6:29BUFAlex TuchAssists: Bowen Byram, Zach Benson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 7:47LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Brandt Clarke · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:00BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Jack Quinn, Ryan McLeod · Snap, 0.65 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:23LAKJeff Malott: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:23LAKJeff Malott: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:23BUFMichael Kesselring: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:04BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:04BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:04LAKQuinton Byfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:36BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:00LAKSamuel Helenius: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:52LAKCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:44BUFPeyton Krebs: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44LAKJeff Malott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44BUFMichael Kesselring: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:44LAKSamuel Helenius: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Laferriere
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Kempe – Laferriere9:34
xG 0.74–0.33 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Armia – Fiala – Kuzmenko9:48
xG 0.46–0.42 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Malott – Helenius – Ward7:03
xG 0.22–0.55 (28%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
- Foegele – Moore – Byfield11:05
xG 0.48–1.20 (29%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Ceci12:31
xG 0.67–0.32 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Doughty – Clarke2:11
xG 0.14–0.01 (91%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson16:03
xG 0.90–0.83 (52%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Benson12:45
xG 1.65–0.43 (79%)attempts 23–15goals 1–0
- Doan – Ostlund – Helenius10:31
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Krebs – Kozak10:36
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn11:36
xG 0.35–0.80 (30%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestByram – Power9:16
xG 0.73–0.29 (71%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Metsa4:48
xG 0.39–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin7:14
xG 0.60–0.30 (67%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).