Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
Colorado Avalanche 3, Montréal Canadiens 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 15 | 112 | 112 | 329 |
| MTL | 39 | 212 | 27 | 728 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 4:09COLBrock NelsonAssists: Josh Manson, Samuel Girard · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 5:51MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Ivan Demidov, Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.27 xG1–2
- P1 7:33MTLNick SuzukiSHAssists: Oliver Kapanen, Mike Matheson · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 16:36MTLJake EvansGWGAssists: Kaiden Guhle, Zachary Bolduc · Snap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 17:16MTLKirby DachAssists: Zachary Bolduc · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P2 18:06COLJoel KivirantaAssists: Sam Malinski, Jack Drury · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 4:38COLRoss ColtonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.32 xG3–5
- P3 5:45MTLAlexandre CarrierAssists: Nick Suzuki, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.16 xG3–6
- P3 9:55MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Oliver Kapanen, Ivan Demidov · Snap, 0.27 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:24COLKeaton Middleton: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:14MTLJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:37MTLCole Caufield: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:14COLSam Malinski: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:39MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:39COLKeaton Middleton: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNelson – MacKinnon – Necas3:25
xG 0.37–0.05 (89%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas12:02
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 17–15goals 0–2
- Colton – Drury – Kiviranta3:17
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nelson – Nichushkin – Colton3:54
xG 0.58–0.53 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski2:43
xG 0.70–0.01 (98%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Makar – Malinski16:04
xG 0.90–0.39 (70%)attempts 20–13goals 1–1
- Burns – Manson11:23
xG 0.79–0.41 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Evans – Dach – Bolduc10:20
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:27
xG 0.90–1.06 (46%)attempts 12–16goals 2–1
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson9:14
xG 0.25–0.47 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Suzuki – Texier – Caufield10:45
xG 0.10–0.97 (9%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Hutson2:45
xG 0.46–0.17 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Dobson – Guhle3:03
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Xhekaj – Hutson3:33
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).