Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 2, New York Rangers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 25 | 010 | 221 |
| NYR | 06 | 08 | 17 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:18NYICarson SoucyAssists: Maxim Shabanov, Scott Mayfield · Snap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 18:53NYIMatthew SchaeferGWGAssists: Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 2:48NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:50NYRJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47NYIMathew Barzal: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:29NYRWill Cuylle: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:26NYIRyan Pulock: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:59NYITony DeAngelo: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 12:08NYRUrho Vaakanainen: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:08NYIMarc Gatcomb: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:41NYRVincent Trocheck: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Laba won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Horvat – Heineman11:27
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:46
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Shabanov7:14
xG 0.33–0.47 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Duclair – Drouin – Barzal10:53
xG 0.12–0.78 (14%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Soucy10:18
xG 0.53–0.03 (94%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock2:10
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Perreault12:54
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Carrick – Berard – Rempe7:05
xG 0.44–0.19 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:31
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Raddysh – Othmann – Laba8:21
xG 0.03–0.21 (14%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Schneider14:38
xG 0.57–0.36 (62%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Vaakanainen – Morrow9:41
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Borgen – Robertson13:37
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).