Thu, Jan 29, 2026·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Florida Panthers 4, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 27 | 06 | 420 |
| STL | 310 | 110 | 111 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12FLAA.J. GreerAssists: Luke Kunin, Sandis Vilmanis · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 4:46STLJake NeighboursAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 7:51STLJordan KyrouAssists: Philip Broberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 9:22FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Uvis Balinskis · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P1 14:27STLJonatan BerggrenAssists: Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 0:41STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.08 xG2–4
- P2 16:52FLAMatthew TkachukAssists: Eetu Luostarinen, Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–4
- P2 18:39FLAMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–4
- P3 19:51STLJimmy SnuggerudPPGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (18)
- P1 9:03STLNathan Walker: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:44FLANiko Mikkola: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:44STLNick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:51FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:53FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:35STLDalibor Dvorsky: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:34STLPhilip Broberg: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20FLAMackie Samoskevich: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:09STLDalibor Dvorsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:25STLBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P2 7:57FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 11:12FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:12STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:15STLOskar Sundqvist: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:01STLNick Bjugstad: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:46STLJoel Hofer: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:46FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:06FLANiko Mikkola: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorsky won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Kunin – Vilmanis4:32
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Rodrigues – Samoskevich2:11
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Marchand – Luostarinen – Schwindt4:14
xG 0.13–0.28 (31%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
- Bennett – Tkachuk – Samoskevich9:39
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Balinskis11:39
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Petry – Bjornfot8:36
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling13:15
xG 0.38–0.83 (32%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Neighbours7:49
xG 0.61–0.24 (72%)attempts 12–5goals 2–1
- Schenn – Snuggerud – Dvorsky4:58
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Berggren – Snuggerud3:56
xG 0.08–0.10 (47%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Walker – Toropchenko6:21
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Broberg10:37
xG 0.55–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Fowler – Mailloux7:52
xG 0.23–0.20 (54%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Faulk – Tucker10:50
xG 0.29–0.41 (41%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).