Sat, Jan 31, 2026·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Rangers 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 12 | 49 | 520 |
| PIT | 211 | 110 | 313 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Rutger McGroarty · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 6:05PITNoel AcciariAssists: Blake Lizotte, Connor Dewar · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 12:59PITAnthony ManthaAssists: Rickard Rakell, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 18:28NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 1:20PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 1:40PITNoel AcciariAssists: Blake Lizotte, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–5
- P3 9:12NYRVincent TrocheckSHAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–5
- P3 15:15NYRVladislav GavrikovAssists: Braden Schneider, Jonny Brodzinski · Slap, 0.07 xG3–5
- P3 17:28PITBen KindelENGWGAssists: Connor Dewar, Stuart Skinner · Wrist, 0.67 xG3–6
- P3 18:53NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Matthew Robertson · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–6
- P3 19:49NYRWill CuylleAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.23 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:10PITRutger McGroarty: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:40NYRScott Morrow: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:19NYRMatthew Robertson: Interference2 min
- P2 10:56NYRJonny Brodzinski: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:09NYRSam Carrick: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:09PITAnthony Mantha: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15PITEvgeni Malkin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:37PITIlya Solovyov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:24NYRWill Borgen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:25
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Brodzinski – Rempe4:27
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Carrick – Raddysh – Othmann3:10
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Perreault11:20
xG 0.51–1.11 (32%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Vaakanainen – Morrow9:09
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Gavrikov – Schneider10:59
xG 0.37–0.70 (34%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Borgen – Robertson13:35
xG 0.42–0.81 (34%)attempts 10–10goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Novak – Chinakhov9:33
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Mantha – McGroarty – Kindel6:21
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Brazeau7:52
xG 0.42–0.19 (69%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:02
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Shea13:18
xG 1.03–0.47 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Clifton – Solovyov12:38
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Karlsson – Wotherspoon12:52
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).