Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
San Jose Sharks 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 16 | 08 | 225 |
| CGY | 115 | 117 | 110 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:11SJSWill SmithPPAssists: Alexander Wennberg · Snap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 14:44CGYMorgan FrostPPAssists: Matt Coronato, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.38 xG1–1
- P2 1:21SJSAdam GaudetteAssists: William Eklund, Michael Misa · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P2 6:59CGYMatvei GridinAssists: Morgan Frost, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:53CGYJoel FarabeeSHGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Kevin Bahl · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:38CGYBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:55SJSJohn Klingberg: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:18SJSZack Ostapchuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53CGYMartin Pospisil: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:53CGYRyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:53SJSVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:38SJSDmitry Orlov: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:00SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:46SJSZack Ostapchuk: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:46SJSBarclay Goodrow: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:38CGYNazem Kadri: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:34CGYZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P3 17:19SJSMichael Misa: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Wennberg – Kurashev8:22
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Eklund – Misa6:45
xG 0.45–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk5:46
xG 0.02–0.36 (5%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Celebrini – Graf8:18
xG 0.26–0.97 (21%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Desharnais – Dickinson8:08
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Orlov – Dickinson3:47
xG 0.22–0.38 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Orlov – Klingberg10:13
xG 0.80–1.03 (44%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHuberdeau – Frost – Gridin8:37
xG 0.87–0.08 (91%)attempts 18–6goals 1–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Klapka4:23
xG 0.33–0.07 (83%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:07
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary2:54
xG 0.32–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Pachal9:16
xG 0.79–0.23 (77%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl14:24
xG 1.10–0.78 (59%)attempts 14–19goals 0–0
- Weegar – Kuznetsov12:38
xG 0.70–0.53 (57%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).