Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 1, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 111 | 07 | 09 | 127 |
| OTT | 19 | 012 | 313 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:38OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:16NJDTimo MeierAssists: Cody Glass, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:37OTTDylan CozensPPGWGAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Deflected, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 17:53OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 18:41OTTShane PintoENAssists: Michael Amadio, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.76 xG1–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:32OTTTyler Kleven: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:01OTTClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:24NJDBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:30OTTDylan Cozens: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:04NJDJohnathan Kovacevic: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:18NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:01OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:41NJDBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:41OTTDylan Cozens: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:00OTTTyler Kleven: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glass won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Cotter – Tsyplakov4:03
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Bratt – Mercer5:03
xG 0.04–0.09 (30%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bratt – Hischier – Gritsyuk2:41
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hischier – Gritsyuk – Hameenaho6:15
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Nemec2:49
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Pesce11:34
xG 0.31–0.37 (46%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Dillon – Nemec8:52
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCousins – Amadio – Pinto10:41
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Giroux – Batherson – Stützle8:30
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig7:46
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Eller – Zetterlund – Halliday4:14
xG 0.05–0.14 (25%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpence – Kleven11:39
xG 0.79–0.07 (92%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub10:02
xG 0.51–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Jensen – Kleven2:18
xG 0.14–0.07 (65%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).