Sat, Jan 31, 2026·UBS Arena, Elmont
Nashville Predators 4, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 211 | 122 | 19 | 442 |
| NYI | 210 | 113 | 07 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anthony Duclair, Tony DeAngelo · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 5:57NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Ryan Pulock, Mathew Barzal · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 9:59NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Roman Josi, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 12:53NSHMatthew WoodAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 7:21NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Anders Lee, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 14:11NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Matthew Wood · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:46NSHRoman JosiGWGAssists: Adam Wilsby, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:53NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:11NSHJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:11NSHJonathan Marchessault: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:10NYIKyle MacLean: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 8:10NSHMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:10NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:19NSHAdam Wilsby: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:49NYIAdam Pelech: Interference2 min
- P3 17:49NSHCole Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bunting – Evangelista9:24
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–5goals 0–1
- McCarron – Smith – Wiesblatt6:12
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Forsberg – Jost – Wood3:29
xG 0.32–0.21 (61%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Marchessault4:19
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Skjei17:42
xG 1.74–0.82 (68%)attempts 26–17goals 2–2
- Englund – Barron10:50
xG 0.66–0.22 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Josi – Wilsby2:59
xG 0.33–0.13 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Horvat – Heineman12:49
xG 0.84–0.77 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:35
xG 0.46–0.82 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Duclair – Barzal – Shabanov11:27
xG 0.76–1.28 (37%)attempts 11–19goals 2–1
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom10:45
xG 0.30–0.88 (25%)attempts 7–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Pulock – Schaefer14:18
xG 0.92–0.98 (48%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:50
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Soucy13:42
xG 0.72–1.08 (40%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).