Sat, Jan 31, 2026·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 111 | 118 | 05 | 2 | 341 |
| VAN | 07 | 214 | 05 | 04 | 0 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:55VANJonathan LekkerimäkiAssists: Liam Ohgren, Pierre-Olivier Joseph · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 13:34TORNicolas RoyAssists: Nick Robertson, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Slap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:45VANTom WillanderAssists: Evander Kane, Elias Pettersson · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 2:32TORMax DomiAssists: Auston Matthews, Bobby McMann · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 2. TOR William Nylander scored
- 3. VAN Elias Pettersson stopped
- 4. TOR Auston Matthews scored
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:00VANElias Pettersson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TORScott Laughton: Cross checking2 min
- OT 3:46VANConor Garland: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Nylander – Maccelli13:56
xG 1.25–0.17 (88%)attempts 21–8goals 0–1
- Domi – Matthews – McMann14:18
xG 1.32–0.44 (75%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Laughton – Lorentz7:33
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Roy – Robertson – Knies10:24
xG 0.54–0.75 (42%)attempts 14–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Carlo7:07
xG 0.97–0.34 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Stecher9:34
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Rielly – Carlo9:23
xG 0.44–0.04 (91%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Blueger – Lekkerimäki – Ohgren9:38
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrusk – Pettersson2:04
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Chytil – Kampf – Karlsson10:00
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
- DeBrusk – O'Connor – Räty10:07
xG 0.67–0.80 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson2:54
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Myers – Pettersson4:08
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Hronek3:57
xG 0.02–0.15 (10%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).