Sun, Feb 1, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 17 | 219 | 331 |
| ANA | 18 | 28 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21ANAChris KreiderAssists: Ryan Poehling, Pavel Mintyukov · Deflected, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 1:10ANAChris KreiderAssists: Jacob Trouba, Troy Terry · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:32ANACutter GauthierPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Beckett Sennecke · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 9:47VGKMitch MarnerAssists: Mark Stone, Pavel Dorofeyev · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 10:40VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Jack Eichel, Alexander Holtz · Snap, 0.26 xG2–3
- P3 18:53ANARyan PoehlingENGWGAssists: Troy Terry, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.55 xG2–4
- P3 19:54VGKTomas HertlAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.23 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:49ANAOlen Zellweger: Holding2 min
- P2 4:11VGKTomas Hertl: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 5:20VGKTanner Laczynski: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:22ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Granlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Eichel – Holtz4:24
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Smith – Hertl – Kolesar3:18
xG 0.22–0.03 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Barbashev – Eichel – Bowman7:03
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Stone – Marner – Dorofeyev13:05
xG 0.57–0.54 (51%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Theodore4:42
xG 0.79–0.04 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Theodore – Lauzon12:02
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lauzon – Korczak4:17
xG 0.30–0.09 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Kreider – Terry – Poehling9:24
xG 0.38–0.33 (53%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Washe8:41
xG 0.04–0.27 (12%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Viel – McTavish – Gauthier10:22
xG 0.43–0.68 (39%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Killorn – Granlund – Sennecke12:30
xG 0.13–0.56 (19%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Zellweger13:25
xG 0.61–0.58 (51%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
- Moore – Mintyukov15:10
xG 0.33–0.68 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Trouba – LaCombe18:03
xG 0.26–0.83 (24%)attempts 10–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).