Mon, Feb 2, 2026·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 28 | 16 | 26 | 520 |
| FLA | 29 | 119 | 014 | 342 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:37FLASandis VilmanisAssists: A.J. Greer, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 5:54FLAEvan RodriguesAssists: Sam Reinhart, Tobias Bjornfot · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 15:03BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Peyton Krebs, Rasmus Dahlin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 18:26BUFPeyton KrebsAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 5:44BUFZach BensonAssists: Ryan McLeod, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 18:59FLAUvis BalinskisPPAssists: Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe · Snap, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 5:31BUFJason ZuckerPPGWGAssists: Josh Doan, Jack Quinn · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 17:51BUFJosh DoanAssists: Peyton Krebs, Ryan McLeod · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 3:36BUFRyan McLeod: Delaying game2 min
- P2 12:51FLAJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:11BUFJack Quinn: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 0:35FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P3 5:19FLACole Schwindt: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:15BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:08BUFBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Schwindt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – Thompson – Krebs10:38
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson3:12
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Malenstyn – Rosen – Kozak2:14
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zucker – McLeod – Quinn10:30
xG 0.72–0.91 (44%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin7:11
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power3:51
xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Kesselring – Power3:18
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGreer – Schwindt – Vilmanis11:10
xG 0.92–0.08 (92%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Kunin – Boqvist – Samoskevich2:42
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Rodrigues – Samoskevich5:09
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Luostarinen6:08
xG 0.42–0.50 (46%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Bjornfot9:20
xG 0.96–0.13 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 1–1
- Mikkola – Balinskis13:59
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:16
xG 0.77–0.89 (46%)attempts 18–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).