Wed, Feb 4, 2026·Ball Arena, Denver
San Jose Sharks 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 05 | 08 | 212 | 225 |
| COL | 014 | 217 | 211 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:05COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar · Deflected, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 15:47COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 0:43SJSTimothy LiljegrenAssists: Alexander Wennberg, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 3:34SJSPhilipp KurashevUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 12:44COLJosh MansonGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 18:43COLBrock NelsonENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.69 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:57COLParker Kelly: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:09COLBrock Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:29SJSAlexander Wennberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:38SJSKiefer Sherwood: Holding2 min
- P2 4:08SJSPhilipp Kurashev: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:41COLZakhar Bardakov: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:50COLBrent Burns: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:50SJSMacklin Celebrini: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Drury
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Gaudette – Ostapchuk7:05
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Wennberg – Kurashev – Graf9:30
xG 0.14–0.34 (29%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Sherwood – Smith – Celebrini10:44
xG 0.31–0.85 (27%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Misa7:37
xG 0.28–0.83 (25%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Mukhamadullin8:38
xG 0.60–0.22 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Mukhamadullin2:52
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Ferraro2:54
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin9:46
xG 1.00–0.24 (80%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Nelson – Olofsson – Colton7:15
xG 0.76–0.03 (96%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kelly – Drury – Kiviranta9:00
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 0–2
- Bardakov – Makar – Brindley2:06
xG 0.32–0.58 (35%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Malinski10:35
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Burns – Manson12:33
xG 0.80–0.48 (62%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Toews – Makar14:21
xG 0.98–0.90 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).