Wed, Feb 4, 2026·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 3, Calgary Flames 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 115 | 114 | 339 |
| CGY | 210 | 16 | 19 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:12CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Matvei Gridin · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:14EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 14:44CGYMatvei GridinPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Devin Cooley · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 11:43CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Zach Whitecloud, Nazem Kadri · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 18:26EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 4:17EDMKasperi KapanenAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 6:44CGYRyan LombergGWGAssists: Nazem Kadri, Zach Whitecloud · Snap, 0.24 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:54EDMEvan Bouchard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 3:21CGYJoel Hanley: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P1 6:11CGYRyan Lomberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:10EDMSpencer Stastney: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:30CGYJoel Hanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:30EDMTy Emberson: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:43EDMMattias Janmark: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:43CGYMartin Pospisil: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:06CGYMatt Coronato: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 11:18CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Kapanen – Podkolzin5:40
xG 0.29–0.06 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – Kapanen – Savoie3:43
xG 0.24–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Roslovic – Podkolzin2:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Mangiapane – Roslovic3:33
xG 0.20–0.10 (66%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Walman14:00
xG 0.91–0.37 (71%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Emberson – Stastney8:48
xG 0.34–0.47 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Nurse – Stastney2:18
xG 0.01–0.25 (2%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Pospisil – Klapka4:46
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Huberdeau – Frost – Gridin5:55
xG 0.23–0.08 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato10:30
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Kadri – Farabee – Zary9:32
xG 0.40–0.50 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitecloud – Bahl15:41
xG 1.12–0.93 (55%)attempts 23–13goals 1–0
- Hanley – Parekh7:42
xG 0.05–0.27 (14%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Weegar – Kuznetsov14:39
xG 0.57–0.88 (39%)attempts 17–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).