Thu, Feb 5, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Nashville Predators 2, Washington Capitals 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 011 | 110 | 18 | 229 |
| WSH | 212 | 112 | 16 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:15WSHTom WilsonAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:48WSHPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 8:42WSHJakob ChychrunGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 17:40NSHJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Erik Haula, Adam Wilsby · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 1:17NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Cole Smith, Adam Wilsby · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–3
- P3 13:11WSHJakob ChychrunPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 10:54NSHOzzy Wiesblatt: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:35WSHAlex Ovechkin: Interference2 min
- P1 17:47NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:52WSHRyan Leonard: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:39NSHJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:15NSHErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:19WSHJustin Sourdif: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:14NSHBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:03NSHJonathan Marchessault: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:26WSHRasmus Sandin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista10:10
xG 0.90–0.23 (80%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bunting – Smith7:53
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Jost – Wiesblatt – Schaefer4:55
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Marchessault – Forsberg8:16
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Wilsby11:11
xG 1.34–0.55 (71%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
- Hague – Perbix9:52
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Josi – Barron14:45
xG 0.63–0.77 (45%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Dubois – Protas8:47
xG 1.05–0.50 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Frank3:01
xG 0.17–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Lapierre5:29
xG 0.12–0.08 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Leonard7:07
xG 0.15–0.50 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFehérváry – Sandin2:59
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Chychrun4:04
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry5:22
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).