Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 09 | 16 | 124 |
| WSH | 07 | 113 | 29 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:52WSHRasmus SandinAssists: Hendrix Lapierre, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P3 0:29PHINoah CatesAssists: Travis Sanheim, Bobby Brink · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 14:08WSHTrevor van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Declan Chisholm, Aliaksei Protas · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P3 19:34WSHAliaksei ProtasENUnassisted · Snap, 0.58 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:43WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:46PHICam York: Holding2 min
- P3 19:11WSHNic Dowd: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Michkov10:56
xG 1.10–0.52 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Grundstrom – Grebenkin5:37
xG 0.18–0.08 (69%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras12:19
xG 0.42–0.61 (40%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey11:27
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim17:45
xG 1.62–1.38 (54%)attempts 21–17goals 1–2
- York – Drysdale16:23
xG 0.77–0.53 (59%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Seeler – Juulsen12:07
xG 0.17–0.47 (27%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDubois – McMichael – Leonard10:57
xG 0.78–0.21 (78%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Sourdif – Frank10:17
xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Duhaime – Lapierre6:42
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Strome – Protas9:56
xG 0.30–0.83 (27%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Chisholm7:59
xG 1.07–0.47 (69%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Sandin10:15
xG 1.03–0.67 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Sandin – Chisholm4:38
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).