Wed, Feb 25, 2026·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Seattle Kraken 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 03 | 06 | 110 | 119 |
| DAL | 110 | 316 | 06 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:41DALWyatt JohnstonAssists: Esa Lindell, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 1:43DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 5:35DALSam SteelAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Justin Hryckowian · Poke, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 6:14DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Matt Duchene · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–4
- P3 6:46SEARyker EvansUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG1–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:55DALThomas Harley: Interference2 min
- P1 15:17DALJamie Benn: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 3:28SEAFrederick Gaudreau: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:35SEAJacob Melanson: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P2 16:16SEAJared McCann: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:27DALJason Robertson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:50DALAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:50DALAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:50SEAJacob Melanson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:50SEABen Meyers: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:50DALJustin Hryckowian: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Johnston
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – McCann – Beniers10:22
xG 0.61–0.09 (87%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Winterton – Melanson – Meyers6:13
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Wright – Catton2:30
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Stephenson – Tolvanen2:47
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Evans6:56
xG 0.91–0.80 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Oleksiak – Montour6:02
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Larsson – Evans3:19
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRobertson – Bourque – Johnston13:53
xG 1.22–0.54 (69%)attempts 18–13goals 1–1
- Benn – Duchene – Steel9:24
xG 0.42–0.18 (69%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Erne – Hryckowian6:42
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Bastian – Bäck – Hyry5:56
xG 0.23–0.41 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarley – Bichsel2:20
xG 0.63–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Lindell – Harley2:02
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 2–0
- Lundkvist – Harley12:30
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).