Wed, Feb 25, 2026·Honda Center, Anaheim
Edmonton Oilers 5, Anaheim Ducks 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 28 | 19 | 527 |
| ANA | 110 | 19 | 410 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:13EDMJack RoslovicAssists: Matt Savoie, Darnell Nurse · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 9:03EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Matt Savoie · Snap, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 10:30ANAIan MooreAssists: Jansen Harkins, Ross Johnston · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 3:01ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 18:45EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:20EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–2
- P3 1:30ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Jacob Trouba, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
- P3 2:55ANAOlen ZellwegerAssists: Radko Gudas, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.01 xG4–4
- P3 5:53EDMMatt SavoiePPAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 6:39ANABeckett SenneckeAssists: Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.09 xG5–5
- P3 18:46ANACutter GauthierGWGAssists: Leo Carlsson, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:14EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:51EDMAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:42ANACutter Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:52EDMJack Roslovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:32EDMTy Emberson: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:56ANAIan Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 19:37EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Carlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid12:07
xG 1.17–0.75 (61%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Draisaitl – Roslovic – Savoie9:08
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 13–11goals 1–2
- Lazar – Mangiapane – Frederic2:16
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – Roslovic2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:13
xG 1.26–0.68 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Emberson – Stastney13:08
xG 0.74–0.18 (81%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Nurse – Walman15:06
xG 0.93–0.57 (62%)attempts 16–17goals 1–4
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Terry – Poehling3:05
xG 0.37–0.20 (66%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Sennecke7:55
xG 0.24–0.10 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Kreider – Gauthier – Carlsson4:09
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Killorn – Carlsson – Sennecke2:25
xG 0.14–0.11 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – LaCombe12:38
xG 1.04–0.51 (67%)attempts 18–9goals 3–0
- Gudas – LaCombe2:09
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Moore – Zellweger5:02
xG 0.15–0.35 (29%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).