Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Islanders 4, Montréal Canadiens 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 212 | 18 | 11 | 426 |
| MTL | 110 | 18 | 16 | 01 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11MTLNoah DobsonAssists: Lane Hutson · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 10:06MTLNoah DobsonPPAssists: Alexandre Texier, Alex Newhook · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 17:56NYIMatthew SchaeferPPAssists: Mathew Barzal, Calum Ritchie · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 18:51NYIMatthew SchaeferAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Ilya Sorokin · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:11MTLCole CaufieldPPAssists: Ivan Demidov, Juraj Slafkovský · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 18:19NYIAnders LeeAssists: Bo Horvat, Simon Holmstrom · Deflected, 0.15 xG3–3
- OT 1:46NYIJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 8:19NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:30MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:38MTLMike Matheson: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:18NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:44NYIKyle MacLean: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:36
xG 0.93–0.35 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Drouin – Heineman – Ritchie9:59
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Palat – Horvat – Barzal13:57
xG 0.53–0.24 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb7:21
xG 0.05–0.42 (11%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Schaefer15:34
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Pelech – DeAngelo14:43
xG 1.09–0.86 (56%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Schaefer2:57
xG 0.10–0.06 (61%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestSuzuki – Dach – Caufield13:43
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Evans – Texier – Newhook10:29
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Danault – Anderson7:44
xG 0.05–0.27 (16%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Kapanen – Slafkovský – Demidov11:08
xG 0.48–1.14 (30%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarrier – Xhekaj10:23
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Matheson – Guhle16:30
xG 0.46–0.62 (43%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Dobson – Hutson15:40
xG 0.87–1.11 (44%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).