Thu, Feb 26, 2026·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 05 | 110 | 18 | 11 | 324 |
| NYR | 19 | 15 | 08 | 02 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:56NYRSam CarrickAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Will Borgen · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 1:23NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Will Cuylle, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P2 10:25PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Noah Cates, Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.23 xG1–2
- P3 0:39PHITrevor ZegrasAssists: Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 2:10PHIMatvei MichkovGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:11PHIGarnet Hathaway: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:11NYRSam Carrick: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:11PHIGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:29NYRBrennan Othmann: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:27NYRConor Sheary: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:53PHITrevor Zegras: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:17NYRVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P3 7:28NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:40NYRVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:51PHIMatvei Michkov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHathaway – Grundstrom – Grebenkin5:33
xG 0.34–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–1
- Couturier – Grundstrom – Grebenkin2:03
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Barkey8:22
xG 0.11–0.31 (27%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Dvorak – Konecny – Zegras11:34
xG 0.11–0.49 (18%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestYork – Drysdale13:00
xG 0.53–0.40 (57%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Seeler – Andrae10:17
xG 0.08–0.29 (22%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim15:30
xG 0.33–0.79 (29%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestSheary – Brisson – Laba8:22
xG 0.51–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Perreault12:04
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Lafrenière – Cuylle10:01
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Carrick – Raddysh – Othmann6:16
xG 0.04–0.69 (5%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Fox13:45
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Robertson – Iorio9:38
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Fox – Robertson2:24
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).