Thu, Feb 26, 2026·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Calgary Flames 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 06 | 110 | 313 | 429 |
| SJS | 016 | 112 | 07 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:17SJSTyler ToffoliAssists: Mario Ferraro, Michael Misa · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 15:02CGYNazem KadriAssists: Joel Farabee, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 5:22CGYConnor ZaryGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, Yan Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 11:56CGYNazem KadriAssists: Connor Zary · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 17:30CGYMikael BacklundENAssists: Matt Coronato, Zach Whitecloud · Wrist, 0.48 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:10CGYBlake Coleman: Holding2 min
- P1 10:19SJSSam Dickinson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:38SJSMario Ferraro: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:31SJSKiefer Sherwood: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:55CGYMorgan Frost: Interference2 min
- P2 17:23CGYConnor Zary: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Celebrini won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Farabee – Zary12:03
xG 0.80–0.49 (62%)attempts 12–16goals 2–0
- Pospisil – Beecher – Klapka5:02
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Sharangovich – Coronato9:19
xG 0.59–0.50 (54%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Coleman – Frost – Gridin8:12
xG 0.21–0.38 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Parekh9:24
xG 0.78–0.06 (93%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Weegar – Bahl8:08
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Whitecloud – Bahl10:42
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Kurashev – Graf5:32
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Reaves – Goodrow – Ostapchuk5:58
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kurashev – Celebrini – Graf4:10
xG 0.01–0.07 (14%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
- Sherwood – Smith – Celebrini7:54
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Klingberg14:46
xG 0.34–0.42 (45%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Desharnais – Dickinson10:35
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Liljegren10:44
xG 0.58–0.74 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).